Revisiting Distributed Lag Models Through a Bayesian Perspective
نویسندگان
چکیده
Distributed lag models are of importance when it is believed that a covariate at time t, say Xt, causes an impact in the mean value of the response variable, Yt. Moreover, it is believed that the effect of X on Y persists for a period and decays to zero as time passes by. There are in the literature many different models that deal with this kind of situation. This paper aims to review some of these proposals and show that under some fairly simple reparametrization they can be viewed as a particular case of a class of Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) (West & Harrison, 1997), the transfer functions models. Inference is performed following the Bayesian paradigm. Samples from the joint posterior distribution of the unknown quantities of interest are easily obtained through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. And the computation is simplified by the use of the software WinBugs. As an example, the Koyck’s consumption function is analyzed using two different approaches, the Koyck’s and the Solow’s distributed lag models. Then a comparison is made with the transfer function models. We make use of the U.S. quarterly price-deflated, seasonally adjusted data on personal disposable income and personal consumption expenditure described in Zellner e Geisel (1970). KEY-WORDS: Distributed Lag Models; Dynamic Linear Models; Transfer Functions; Markov chain Monte Carlo; WinBUGS.
منابع مشابه
Evaluating and revisiting the public government: a policy feedback perspective
Existing models of quality evaluation in public sector are mainly derived from the approaches within private sector. These models which represented by the New Public Management (NPM) paradigm, don&rsquot reflect the fundamental values of public administration, which are the very essence of the discipline and contrasting it from private sector. These core values, such as democratic citizenship, ...
متن کاملBayesian Analysis of Spatial Probit Models in Wheat Waste Management Adoption
The purpose of this study was to identify factors influencing the adoption of wheat waste management by wheat farmers. The method used in this study using the spatial Probit models and Bayesian model was used to estimate the model. MATLAB software was used in this study. The data of 220 wheat farmers in Khouzestan Province based on random sampling were collected in winter 2016. To calculate Bay...
متن کاملRevisiting Quotes from Educational Perspective: An Inquiry into the Multifarious Applications of Grand Quotes in English Language Pedagogy
متن کامل
Bayesian distributed lag models: estimating effects of particulate matter air pollution on daily mortality.
A distributed lag model (DLagM) is a regression model that includes lagged exposure variables as covariates; its corresponding distributed lag (DL) function describes the relationship between the lag and the coefficient of the lagged exposure variable. DLagMs have recently been used in environmental epidemiology for quantifying the cumulative effects of weather and air pollution on mortality an...
متن کاملParallel Bayesian MCMC Imputation for Multiple Distributed Lag Models: A Case Study in Environmental Epidemiology
Time series data are frequently used to study the short-term effects of particulate matter air pollution on mortality. Distributed lag models, are regression models having daily mortality count as outcome and air pollution levels on the same day and on several previous days as exposure variables. Distributed lag models allow to estimate the cumulative effect of air pollution exposure over few d...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2003